Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.017324 0.019601 0.022067 0.024936 0.028183 0.031744 0.035949
2025-09-28 0.013165 0.016172 0.019706 0.024166 0.029649 0.036179 0.044554
2025-10-05 0.011582 0.015053 0.019365 0.025121 0.032614 0.042054 0.054878
2025-10-12 0.010341 0.014075 0.018930 0.025715 0.034971 0.047185 0.064579
2025-10-19 0.009417 0.013339 0.018645 0.026363 0.037329 0.052394 0.074749
2025-10-26 0.008423 0.012363 0.017887 0.026212 0.038477 0.055946 0.082838
2025-11-02 0.007648 0.011598 0.017315 0.026216 0.039773 0.059732 0.091508
2025-11-09 0.006869 0.010733 0.016496 0.025740 0.040260 0.062298 0.098495
2025-11-16 0.006392 0.010273 0.016225 0.026048 0.041927 0.066729 0.108683
2025-11-23 0.005860 0.009669 0.015668 0.025832 0.042716 0.069809 0.116924
2025-11-30 0.005565 0.009417 0.015637 0.026446 0.044875 0.075220 0.129406
2025-12-07 0.005029 0.008713 0.014804 0.025645 0.044584 0.076537 0.135035
2025-12-14 0.004626 0.008208 0.014272 0.025327 0.045121 0.079344 0.143594
2025-12-21 0.004186 0.007602 0.013517 0.024554 0.044792 0.080624 0.149556
2025-12-28 0.004068 0.007556 0.013733 0.025525 0.047659 0.087772 0.166815
2026-01-04 0.003903 0.007408 0.013751 0.026128 0.049888 0.093924 0.182723
2026-01-11 0.003758 0.007285 0.013801 0.026787 0.052266 0.100525 0.200040
2026-01-18 0.003519 0.006959 0.013444 0.026633 0.053056 0.104154 0.211813
2026-01-25 0.003320 0.006695 0.013182 0.026637 0.054147 0.108436 0.225237
2026-02-01 0.003081 0.006332 0.012697 0.026154 0.054210 0.110673 0.234628
2026-02-08 0.002950 0.006175 0.012608 0.026466 0.055924 0.116361 0.251716
2026-02-15 0.002773 0.005909 0.012277 0.026247 0.056501 0.119741 0.264135
2026-02-22 0.002692 0.005839 0.012343 0.026872 0.058922 0.127171 0.286015